Wrong wronger wrongest: Prognoses

Bursting lungs at speeds beyond 30km/h, worldwide demand of maximal 100 computers, 32 bit processors never for private use. And now strikes McKinsey.



  Only 750.000 electric cars until 2020


Even the German prognosis with 1 million electric cars in Germany until 2020 is extreme low, but the prognosis of the McKinsey management consulting reminds me much on the 100 computers world wide demand.

  Legal liability for wrong prognoses


Is there a liability for management consulting for crass wrong prognoses? Is it possible to make them liable for the crash of a company making very wrong decisions because of such prognoses?

  revolutionary patent for lithium batteries


I published last week the first press release about a patent to revolute the production of lithium batteries. I tried to find a first licensee and contacted a company, I expected they would want it immedeately.

No, absolut no interest. There are studies in the business management that electric cars are long time away. I discussed 15 minutes at the telephone. I painted horror scenarios, when the first license of the patent goes to BYD or Thundersky.

.....this woild be after the next oil price explosion the end of the European automotive industry. Cheap chinese electric cars with far superior battery technology. More than 2.-EUR per litre Diesel, Placards with BYD F3DM 16 kWh night time tariff electric power is cheaper than 1 litre Diesel.

No, it did not help, the called-up thought, that he has much better consultants than I. Maybe McKinsey?

What's the name of this company? I tell You when I have to write the obituary in some years. Wrong prognoses can be deadly.

  Postscript May 2015


The 750,000 electric cars worldwide are nearly reached. Sure June 2015 overstepped.



  2009: In what year are we actually


Okay, we write the year 2009, but much more interesting is, in what year of DDR (German Democratic Republic) do we live? I would quess 1987 or 1988.

Limiting manager salary
In an discussion reached me the question, what can a manager more than a simple worker. Completely clear, the visions, the longtime planning is missing.


IEA - wellcome in the camp of the callers in the desert
In the past when the IEA published ''make no sorrows'' oil prognoses, each government, each car group liked to cite. But 2008 changed the IEA sides.







Context description:  event events date time month 4 Apr April spring 2009-04-04
event 2009
Roland Mösl founder founder@pege.org